11 articles in this category
At 4:00 a.m., the control room is quiet. That's when the morning ramp sneaks up on you. You're staring at a forecast that said load would rise gently,...
If you've ever run a load forecast model that aced July's heatwaves but tanked during a February ice storm, you're not alone. The problem isn't the al...
So your load forecast just blew past the 90% confidence band for the third month in a row. The error isn't random noise—it's a feature. Heat pump adop...
Load forecasting teams face a recurring fork: pick a deterministic forecast—a single number for each hour—or go probabilistic, outputting a full distr...
Here's a scene that plays out in control rooms every spring. The morning load curve drops faster than any model predicted. Operators scramble, thinkin...
You're sitting in a control room near Phoenix, watching the 4 PM ramp. The duck curve's tail—that steep climb in net load as the sun sets—is about to ...
You trust your short-term load forecast. It's been accurate for month. But when you stretch that same model to outline a substation revamp a decade ou...
Here is a scenario I hear every few months. A utility load forecaster runs a model that has been humming along fine for a year. Then a weather event h...
A utility planner once told me: We've been forecasting load the same way for 15 years. It worked until it didn't. That moment—when a heatwave shattere...
You have stared at the chart long enough. The blue line is actual load, the orange line is your forecast, and for the 97th percentile hours—the peaks—...
You run a perfect short-term forecast. RMSE under 2%. MAPE in one-off digits. Operators trust your hourly predictions. Then a heatwave hits—not the re...